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The Sum of it All

According to comprehensive scientific studies there is no convincing evidence that  financial newsletters or market experts exhibit stock picking and market timing abilities that would enable them to outperform the markets over time.

Andrew Metrick of Harvard University finds - based on analysis of the 'Hulbert Financial Digest' - that the newsletters tracked show no significant evidence of superior stock-picking ability. Mark Hulbert himself suggests that only 5% of analysts (at best, if any) consistently outperform the Wilshire 5000 Index.

Now consider the fact that the average of all trades on record here outperform the S&P 500 by 57%, and that 79.7% of all ranked Tipsters have outperformed this index over time (per April 2006).

So what gives? Maybe it's the fundamental thesis that experts will always be most comfortable with sharing their safest picks. Maybe it's the rigid trading disciplin that will limit losses and lock in profits. Quite likely it's in part because only the best Tipsters are ranked in the first place. Most probably it is a combination of all.


Even so, unless you subscribe to the somewhat flawed Efficient Market Hypothesis and believe that the market cannot possibly be beaten, the question comes to mind:"Who then is the best Tipster right now?"
The rankings list may give a clue, but it is tied to all-time performance and does not reveal how long or how often a high score has been achieved. Also, some Tipsters have been followed longer than others, and that may skew the results. In order to somehow objectively decide who is best this year, we need to take a look at what else is in the data. We will try to give the answer based upon the performance in 4 categories, "All-time Performance", "Year Return", "Accuracy", and "Ideal Value". In the end we will name our favorite Tipster as the one best positioned in all 4 categories.

As usual, scores are updated daily. At the end of the year we will name the "Tipster of the Year 2010" and reset the counters for next year.


Top Tipsters 2010 - All-time Performance

Current Status 

#   Tipster Current Rank Current Score
1 Vivian Lewis
 
 19,626
1 169.6
2 Elliott Gue
 
 16,505
3 145.4
3 Mark Leibovit
 
 15,559
- -
4 Louis Navellier
 
 13,197
8 120.9
5 Joe Battipaglia
 
 12,870
5 138.9
6 James B. Stack
 
 12,636
13 104.8
7 Richard Moroney
 
 11,821
10 110.3
8 Zacks Bull of the Day
 
 11,753
9 118.2
9 Walter S. Frank
 
 11,502
14 100.5
10 Michael Vodicka
 
 11,446
12 107.1
11 James W. Oberweis
 
 10,631
17 92.3
12 Mary Anne and Pamela Aden
 
 10,629
6 134
13 Ben Stein
 
 10,317
16 93.6
14 Alexander Green
 
 10,030
18 91.2
15 Kelley Wright
 
 9,957
15 97.8

Top 100

 
Category 1:
All-time Performance

Consistency
In this category we rely on our usual algorithms, which take into consideration numerous parameters and assign points by comparing Tipsters to each other and the market (the S&P 500).

The algorithms are designed to reward high annualized returns at moderate risk.

All picks on record are evaluated in this category. The outcome is the sum of daily scores. Tipsters with no current score keep their latest standing.


Category 2:
Year Return

Timing
To qualify for this and the next categories Tipsters must have a total of at least 18 positions on record at the end of the year - f.ex. 6 at the start of the year and 1 per progressing month.

These are not compounded returns. The averaged annualized return is calculated using the average return percentage and the average number of days positions are held.

Only positions opened or closed this year are evaluated. Positions open at the beginning of the year are evaluated using the close price per December 30, 2009.

Top Tipsters 2010 - Year Return

Current Status 

#   Tipster Current Rank Current Score
1 Zacks All Star Analyst
 
 36.0%
39 39.9
2 Michael Vodicka
 
 21.6%
12 107.1
3 Jim Trippon
 
 17.3%
22 75.5
4 Charles B. Carlson
 
 16.2%
30 56.1
5 Zacks Bull of the Day
 
 11.2%
9 118.2
6 Alex Kolb
 
 10.4%
26 65.6
7 Roger S. Conrad
 
 7.6%
36 45.4
8 Richard E. Band
 
 7.1%
19 85.9
9 Tobin Smith
 
 5.4%
47 28.8
10 Kelley Wright
 
 5.4%
15 97.8
11 Elliott Gue
 
 3.8%
3 145.4
12 Bill Wilton
 
 2.9%
55 18.3
13 George Putnam
 
 2.2%
73 6
14 Pat Dorsey
 
 1.5%
29 58.2
15 Tracey Ryniec
 
 1.2%
54 18.8

Top 100

 

Top Tipsters 2010 - Accuracy

Current Status 

#   Tipster Current Rank Current Score
1 Charles B. Carlson
 
 76.9%
30 56.1
2 Richard E. Band
 
 75.0%
19 85.9
3 Zacks All Star Analyst
 
 66.7%
39 39.9
4 Roger S. Conrad
 
 66.7%
36 45.4
5 Michael Vodicka
 
 61.8%
12 107.1
6 Kelley Wright
 
 58.0%
15 97.8
7 Richard Moroney
 
 57.1%
10 110.3
8 Ron Rowland
 
 57.1%
59 16.8
9 Elliott Gue
 
 56.3%
3 145.4
10 Pat Dorsey
 
 50.0%
29 58.2
11 Neil J. George. Jr.
 
 50.0%
20 82.4
12 Rob Plaza
 
 47.9%
58 17.1
13 Zacks Bull of the Day
 
 47.7%
9 118.2
14 Alex Kolb
 
 47.2%
26 65.6
15 Jim Trippon
 
 46.7%
22 75.5

Top 100

 
Category 3:
Accuracy

Risk
This is the ratio of profitable positions to the total number of picks open this year.

As in categories 2 and 4, expect considerable volatility, particularly in the first months of the year.


Category 4:
Ideal Value

Reward
Finally, in fairness to those Tipsters who are fuming over our trading methodology, we take a look at how well you could have done with a Tipster's picks, assuming that you had no exit strategy, no profit lock, and the talent to sell a stock at the absolute high within 6 months.

The outcome is displayed as the average of all ideal returns, as always assuming equal dollar weighting.

Top Tipsters 2010 - Ideal Value

Current Status 

#   Tipster Current Rank Current Score
1 Zacks All Star Analyst
 
 22.9%
39 39.9
2 George Putnam
 
 22.7%
73 6
3 Neil J. George. Jr.
 
 20.4%
20 82.4
4 Alex Kolb
 
 20.4%
26 65.6
5 Natalie Pace
 
 19.5%
35 46.7
6 Bill Wilton
 
 19.1%
55 18.3
7 Michael Vodicka
 
 18.8%
12 107.1
8 Tobin Smith
 
 17.9%
47 28.8
9 Tracey Ryniec
 
 17.6%
54 18.8
10 Zacks Bull of the Day
 
 17.5%
9 118.2
11 Zacks Screen of the Week
 
 16.9%
38 43.1
12 Charles Payne
 
 16.6%
67 9.2
13 Richard Moroney
 
 15.6%
10 110.3
14 Pat Dorsey
 
 15.3%
29 58.2
15 Elliott Gue
 
 14.8%
3 145.4

Top 100

 

 

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